For months the Scottish independence referendum campaign has been in gridlock. Opinions polls were frozen, with a solid 57 per cent wanting to keep the Union and 43 per cent seeking Scottish self-government (when undecided are excluded). It looked like game, set and match to the official Better Together Campaign led by Alistair Darling, former Labour Chancellor of the Exchequer. Independence activists, whom everyone concedes have a more active door-to-door campaign, were getting worried.
Now suddenly, with barely a week till the historic vote on September 18, the outcome has been thrown wide open, with a four point rise in support for Yes. The game changer was the commanding performance of SNP leader Alex Salmond in his second television debate with Darling. With barely a week till voting day, London politicians have suddenly woken up to what is happening north of the Border. David Cameron told the Daily Mail he was 'nervous' about the outcome on September 18.
He has cause to be. His visit to Glasgow a few days after the second TV debate, to address a dinner organised by the Confederation of British Industry ended in humiliation when CBI president Sir Mike Rake used the occasion to warn that the real danger to Scotland’s and Britain’s businesses comes not from Alex Salmond but from the Prime Minister’s promise to hold an in-out referendum on EU membership.
The letters pages of Scottish newspapers have become a public battleground for local business chiefs, with the rival camps signing calls for support. First came the No side with 130 business luminaries, including Douglas Flint, chairman of HSBC bank. HSBC has a tiny presence in Scotland and it was alleged that Mr Flint was using his role in the Better Together campaign to curry favour with Downing Street. The Yes side instantly responded with 200 business leaders declaring their support for independence, including Stagecoach boss Brian Souter, former RBS head George Mathewson, and oil expert Sir Donald Mackay.
In a last ditch effort to dissuade Scottish voters from independence, David Cameron is offering to give the Scottish Parliament greater control over taxes. He has gone even further than Labour’s Ed Miliband, with a proposal to hand over complete control of income tax in Scotland to the Scottish Government, plus a share of VAT proceeds and even increased responsibility for deciding welfare policy.
As it is, there is a general feeling in Scotland that a No victory on September 18 will not end calls for independence, especially if the vote is close. Scotland and mainstream English society are growing apart in political outlook, especially now NHS services in England are being put out to private tender. This would prove a constitutional flashpoint if NHS spending is cut in England, and the devolved Scottish Parliament is told to raise taxes if it wants to keep a welfare state. Expect Alex Salmond and his troops to press that point hard in the final days of the campaign ...
For the full debate on a range of issues including defence, culture, governance and, of course, the economy, please see Scottish Independence: Yes or No? by Alan Cochrane and George Kerevan.